Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
