Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
