‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.