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At first, Trump seemed to take a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing statements of "serious repercussions" last August in case Putin carried on blocking ceasefire talks, the former president eventually introduced major restrictions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted Putin's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would in practice reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that very independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Giveaways

Although keeping in place the presently divided regions of these areas, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that are a essential barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear path to the capital in case he subsequently choose to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would make future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their existing large number personnel to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the plan sets no such restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any Nazi belief system and activities must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation promise not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized land in the Donbas to the government – how should we have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on western security guarantees. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate unified armed reaction" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not